the Deputy Chairman of the Board of the national chamber of entrepreneurs Rustam zhursunov came up with the idea to invest pension assets in the lending business.
“We are convinced that the financial reserves of the national Bank notes and the funds of the SAPF can be a source of long money. They should facilitate structural change in the economy, including for the financing of the real sector through PPPs,” said Zhursunov.
According to him, the effectiveness of the current model of investment in assets SPSF raises questions. So, 2013-18 years accumulated SAPF investment return amounted to 56.1% and was below the level of accumulated during this same time, inflation is 56.5%. Whereas in the case of lending the assets of the SAPF infrastructure and industrial projects will guarantee a return above the rate of inflation.
Whether so it actually?
A member of the public Council under the single pension Fund, economist Peter Svoik repeatedly at the meetings spoke of the need to review the approaches of the national Bank to invest depositors ‘ money. He is convinced that the trillions of assets of the SAPF in need of the real economy. In principle, similar to what is said Rustam Zhursunov. But not quite. And here’s why.
Peter Svoik. Source total.kz
The economy is in crisis
— Petro Volodymyrovich, you previously proposed SAPF money to lend to the economy. So you support “Atameken”?
Will start from afar, otherwise we will never find out the truth. The floating exchange rate of the national currency is guaranteed to drive in a crisis credit and the pension system. To determine how useful or not useful the idea of “Atameken”, the need to separately deal with the situation with lending to the economy in General. And of course, with the storage savings FUND. And in the middle will touch on another situation with the budget. Then line up the real picture, understandable to any reader.
It is time to say in plain text that the national credit in Kazakhstan there is no accident, and clear and pre-established rule. It was formulated and is still observed from the time of macrostabilization.
This late 90s — early zero when tenge became a local dollar. Then was build a two-tier banking system
It is correct to call internal networks external funding. What is the meaning of my words?
— That our banks attract money from abroad.
— Is really a normal loan in Kazakhstan can only get the subjects of foreign economic activity. And to they may the same place and operate. That is, in foreign markets, and at normal prices. And sometimes almost free.
If we are talking about a subject working in tenge, the loan can be taken only at a suffocating cost. And it is always higher than any possible return of the borrower.
If you ask bankers why they do that, they’ll say something about inflation, with which we must fight through the high base rate
In fact, inflation is a derivative of the base rate. Support obviously high value of money in Kazakhstan decides it is quite clear the political, and then economic problem — not to allow any productive lending in tenge in Kazakhstan. Such loans are — poison.
Who is the main borrower?
But if these traders are credited abroad cheap, why sell here with a big margin?
— Why “BTA Bank” in the fat years had become the leading Bank of Kazakhstan? Because Mukhtar Ablyazov many aggressive and took the money abroad. And if we look to the balance of external borrowing, and they kept the banking system of Kazakhstan, before defaulting in 2009, two-thirds of the total external debt created by commercial banks at the head of “BTA Bank”. In second place was Kazakhstan “daughters” of foreign parent companies.
It was cheap money, and along the way of tax evasion. At the end of the list was the government that took 2-3% of the total external debt
The last alignment of the other. More than two-thirds of the debt imported “daughter”. The government have their part in the form of government debt, too much tightened. Where are the commercial banks? And they occupy only a few percent and are at the tail of the list. That is, banks after the default has lost the ability to borrow abroad. Now they suffocate. The national Bank turned them off from oxygen under the title “notes”.
The national Bank we have the main borrower. Bolshe money is deven not consumers and mortgage holders,
most of the money in the economy is precisely the national Bank. He produces his music, thereby creating an artificial profitability due to the same inflation
And the economy commercial banks would not lend. Therefore, the “Atameken” rightly concerned about the problem. With the banks figured out.
Tenge is not good for savings
— Well, here is a real opportunity to lend long-term pension money areas which will provide profitability!
— In General,
the idea of the transition from solidarity to accumulative pension system outside. This world Bank dragged
And it was also more political, and then economic sense. The political meaning was the complete destruction of the joint system. Below
the government moved responsibility for all of its citizens to individual relationships
Principle: he who pays, he will receive a pension. Health insurance from the same Opera, by the way. And the fact that all these people — citizens of Kazakhstan, no one cares. The right to pension and medical aid will be available only to the taxpayers. It is an ideology, the consequence of which is that depositors of SAPF is a smaller part of future retirees. And even the lower part has a small accumulation.
long-term savings in losing the value of the national currency, it’s a gamble. And the deliberate loss
To have a sustainable funded system can only exist in any stable currency. A currency which constantly loses value, in principle, not suitable for savings.
Let’s try to count in dollars and the dollar is a more serious one. The array of savings, which was before the devaluation in August 2015, you can compare with what is now. We are horrified to discover that four years ago the dollar was more. Although tenge is kind of accumulation grow.
Accumulative pension system is also in deep crisis. And his figure is the actual loss.
Every depositor of the Fund retirement, gets through “Government for citizens” compensation for inflation. And only for official
And we have it, I am sure, is not the same as real. In the financial statements of pension Fund and national Bank accounting, accumulated return and accumulated inflation is not. I have this issue regularly raised at meetings of the public Council.
We now turn to the budget. Push down on the fact that he, unfortunately, bear the brunt of responsibility for the payment of the so-called investment income.
The budget finances the economy
— Well, Yes, because most of the instruments — government securities.
— In fact, SAPF saves your money and income for them, parasitic on the economy. The income is withdrawn from taxpayers ‘ money. Which, in theory, should go to teachers, doctors and so on. And what do the budget in an environment where banks do not lend to the economy, and SAPF is also not involved in this? Money SPSF hang out in the papers, even travel to Azerbaijan, Chile, Peru, but would not invest in their own economy. Which is also, in principle, the right question to ask.
— There is in fact the portfolio of bonds and shares of Kazakh companies?
— We’ll get to that. The budget has to carry the load, which does not perform any commercial banking system, nor retirement savings. In the budget to support the economy every year lays a very high amount — up to a quarter, and sometimes more. This is evident if you carefully examine the budget. There is expenditure on “agriculture”, “energy and utilities” and so on.
— Yes, for each sector, and the government adopted the state programme.
— And the money comes from the budget. In total, that annually up to 1.5 trillion tenge. So what will help the money ENPF business? They likewise will choke and Bank money. Because SAPF must show income. So, the business will have to return under 9-10%, which is also fatal for him.
Cry Zhursunova clear, but
for business money SPSF — additional loop on the neck
What to do? First, recognize that all of this model in the form of raw materials export economy financed externally, exhaled.
All attempts to somehow use the assets of the SAPF does not work. Banks and business problems. The situation is deadlocked, in which we brought a floating exchange rate policy.
10 years helped the raw materials
— And this means that the pension money should be given to the business?
For 2020 to the budgeted oil price of 55 dollars per barrel and the rate of 380 tenge per dollar. There are still macroeconomic parameters in the form of exports and imports. Us does that ring a bell? Of course, 2010. Only then the average rate was 147 tenge per dollar, and now it is budgeted for 380. Export and import, by the way, in 2010 was also more.
That is, these
10 years we spent to help the raw materials. But the obligation to carry the raw materials economy has placed on domestic producers
The impasse was in the end and pension and banking system. And the business is constantly asking for money from somewhere. This is a systemic crisis. How are we going to go? First we must all admit it.
Next, fold the problems of pension Fund and budget problems together. If the budget is annually forced to pull themselves out of almost 1.5 trillion tenge for the financing of the economy instead of the banks, and SPSF annually brings together contributions from working almost 1 trillion tenge have two problems to combine in one solution.
to invest these receipts are not in Azerbaijan or Peru, while in the case. And walk through the lines of the budget, which urgently need long-term money
They need a lot of where — in agriculture, housing, energy, transport, communications and so on. SAPF can only do the normal accounting of the money that he does brilliantly.
— And now let’s remember what the budget of the programme had a positive result?
— And it is the following. It is financiers like to ask such questions, lamenting that all stolen, and so on. Let us then to invest in financiers and allow them to cut their bonuses. In this argument there is a logic, but this argument is not against what I said. And in order to solve problems at large — that the government should respond and how to conduct proper monitoring.
The less reasonable investment and wacky games to invest retirement money in paper, the less chance that we start to really invest in the correct objects.
Stolen, not stolen
— So was the experience. Still SAPF is suing the bankrupt and investigated criminal case on the embezzlement of pension money. “Imstalcon”, Kazakhstan Kagazy has received the money FUND. And what is the result?
— So the problem is that the annual budget is 1.5 trillion tenge allocated for the financing of the economy, it does not resolve. Only the budget makes it forever. If “Imstalcon” and “Kazakhstan Kagazy” was supposed to return but did not return, it’s one song. But the fact that every year the state loses 1.5 trillion tenge, is this normal? And such amounts will be allocated further. Because you can’t live without the repair of roads and support utilities.
Yes, not all of these 1.5 trillion tenge are being used effectively. It is the accounts Committee and other structures.
Is this a reason to ignore the development of its own economy to the pension money began to work for the country?
Anyone who is worried about the future of the country, and laid the situation on the shelves.
First, export-raw model with external financing came from. This is a big problem, that’s dramatic, but you have to admit it.
Secondly, the system of public investment requires additional monitoring.
The proper and secure investment of pension funds is infrastructure, which are under state tariff regulation
Here, all utilities, Railways and so on.
How can it work? The state is responsible for the tariffs in these sectors. And it will be sent to them urgently needed investments for the pension money. And acquire the real controllers of the monopoly body. There is no such. But this scheme will provide a guaranteed return of pension money.
If Kazakhstan Kagazy can run off to London with the money of pensioners, sewer not going anywhere
It will always be, it will always be, and she will always be a set rate. So out of the sewer you can always get clean, fresh, and smelling good pension.