In 2020 in the core scenario the base rate of the national Bank of Kazakhstan will be in the 9-9 25%, down to the end of the year to 9%. This happens due to long-term inflation being at the top of the target range.
And due to the fact that the expected reduction is minor, the effect of base rates on asset prices and interest rates on deposits and loans in Kazakhstan will be minor. This opinion is shared by Daniyar Orazbayev, the analyst of “freedom Finance”.
If you keep money on Deposit
According to his calculations, the rates in Europe are likely to remain at current low levels, as it is planned by the ECB.
— The same applies to the Federal reserve system of the United States. Forecast on future rates from the fed indicates not raise interest rates in 2020. The latter has become a catalyst of growth of stock markets, which continue to update the highs. Most likely, these forecasts the fed will be the basis to continue the current growth, says students.
If you invest in securities
According to the expert, most likely, due to the possible growth of the securities market in 2020 precious metals will not be particularly interesting.
— It is primarily a question of silver and platinum, the prices of which are still in global lateral movement
It is difficult to expect any significant growth. However, as for gold, which traditionally is a protective tool that has the reverse situation. In this paradigm, 2019 exception — strong growth in gold prices has made this factor a dark horse 2020, says analyst.
Expectations on exchange rates
For those who as a tool for investment selects different currencies, Orazbayev also gives his prediction. According to him,
USD / KZT will vary in the range of 375-390
- The Euro-tenge — 405-420
- A pair of ruble-tenge — 6,15-6,30
- Pair yuan-tenge — 53 to 55.
The composition of the investment portfolio
Meanwhile, according to Daniyar orazbayeva, the formation of the investment portfolio for reliability it is better to distribute the funds in a few tools.
The composition of the investment portfolio always depends on the individual requirements of the risk-return horizon and investment purposes. If you make a “average” portfolio, it would look something like this:
- 50% of the shares,
- 25% bonds
- 10% gold
- 15% cash (money in the currency — ed.)
After the stock has undergone and overcome a sideways movement, which began in 2018, we can expect continued growth of the markets. However, the remaining 50% of the portfolio provides some risk diversification.
Bonds can be a good choice in 2020, as growth rates are not expected
but gold also has a powerful trend of growth and will help to reduce losses from falling stock. The remaining 15% is hold in cash to buy assets in the case of drawdowns as part of a trend of growth, — said the expert.
Until the crisis should not wait
Thus, according to orazbayeva, explicit and fundamental characteristics of the global economic crisis in the coming 2020 is not observed.
— To predict such events before a possible trigger is always very difficult. Therefore, it is impossible to say what will cause the next global crisis, and to predict the timing of such events, he concludes.