when compared with the November 2018, it would seem that sales increased by 10.7%. However, this is not a positive indicator. The fact that the growth of activity in the real estate market from January 2019 fell to the lowest level. In all other months the annual growth was higher than now.
Activity is declining almost everywhere
The November decline has affected almost all regions of the country. The only exception to Mangystau region. Here, the number of transactions increased by 8% (up to 1 248 units). And the demand is increasing for three consecutive months – this can not boast of any other region of the country.
The most serious drop recorded in Nur-Sultan. Compared with October, the number of sold apartments and houses in the capital fell by a thousand, making 3 088 units. Downstream demand for Moscow real estate this year was in March (2 of 415 units).
The most popular is houses, but here there is a reduction. For the first time since March in the southern metropolis, the number of real estate deals has not reached 4 thousand.
For the fourth consecutive month, falling demand for housing in the East Kazakhstan region: if in July, according to official data, was made almost 3 thousand transactions of purchase and sale, in November – less than 2.2 thousand But even so, housing, the region remains one of the most in demand in Kazakhstan: higher activity only in Almaty, Nur-Sultan and Karaganda region (2 793 transactions for November).
Seasonality or a new trend?
One of the reasons for the decline in sales growth in housing prices. According to official data, the cost per square meter in new buildings in average in the Republic has been growing for 16 consecutive months.
In the autumn it increased by more than 8.4 thousand tenge. The greatest growth occurs in major cities. In the secondary market, the situation isn’t much different.
Demand for housing remains high but constant rise in prices stimulates the growth of mortgage lending. According to the NBU, in July-September, banks received more than 58 thousand applications (approximately 650 each day), which approved more than half. The regulator notes that construction lags behind demand in the third quarter of 2019, banks are faced with a shortage of housing space in accordance with the terms of the state programs “Baspana Hit” and “7-20-25”.
I wouldn’t discard the seasonal factor: the number of housing transactions is usually reduced with the onset of winter and the peak of activity comes out in the summer.