the Central Bank continues to persist in his unwillingness to share information about the devaluation expectations of compatriots. We will remind that since August of last year of the traditional survey have disappeared aggregated information about the answers of Kazakhstan on 4 questions, including the prospects for a change in the exchange rate of tenge to the dollar.
Pnce in October, the head of state instructed the national Bank to “improve communication and ongoing awareness-raising policy,” byla hope that the regulator will back off.
However, the Central Bank President didn’t hear. Moreover, the new survey results came out very late. While the Bank of Russia has published the results of such surveys for December, the national Bank has posted the data for November. And again in truncated form.
Therefore, for indirect estimation of devaluation expectations is necessary to use data on currency preferences for savings.
So, in November compared with October, they were in favor of tenge. The proportion of respondents preferring the national currency increased from 69% to 74%. Rethe result is quite predictable, because for the last month of autumn, the tenge has appreciated against the dollar by 0.6%. Increased significantly and the share of respondents who prefer Euro (from 4% to 8%) and ruble (from 3% to 10%).
In which currency you keep your cash savings?
In Russia, where in November, the dollar rose against the ruble by 0.5%, also predictably increased the share of those who expect further rise of the American currency in the next 12 months (43% to 45%). The share of Russians who trusts in the stability of the exchange rate decreased (from 30% to 29%). However, as those who are waiting for the strengthening of the ruble (from 8% to 7%).
On inflation expectations compared with the October special changes has not occurred. Moreover, in annual terms, inflation fell from 5.5% to 5.4%. Slightly decreased (from 36% to 34%) share outstanding maintain the current inflation rate. The proportion of those who puts on the acceleration remained unchanged at 25%. Not changed and share pending slowdown of 13%. In the stability of consumer prices remains believed 5%, their reduction in November expected 3% vs 2% a month earlier.
On how much, in your opinion, will increase prices for food, nonfood goods and services in the next 12 months?
Russia’s annual inflation also decreased to 3.5% (from 3.8% in October). Therefore, the increase from 56% to 58% the share of respondents expecting a decline in consumer prices, seems quite logical. As naturally decreased and the share of Russians, who fear accelerating inflation ( from 19% to 17%). Became less and those who bet on its deceleration (from 7% to 6%).