What will happen to the exchange rate of tenge, inflation and price of oil: forecasts of experts

the tenge exchange Rate stabilized somewhat, entrenched in the corridor 388-390 tenge. Since the beginning of October cost the official currency of the four went beyond the corridor, but always came back. On the one hand, this somewhat simplifies the prediction of the course in the next month, with another floating exchange rate of tenge one is not officially canceled. So things can change any second.

However, the survey participants AFC do not expect sharp fluctuations

In their opinion, tenge slightly weakened: the average forecast is 390,44 tenge, the median (half of the predictions above this value, half below) – 390.

According to the forecasts, the trend of gradual weakening of the national currency will continue. Respondents believe that

after a year, one dollar will cost 405,9 tenge

However, over the last month the forecast has not changed: in October, experts believed that next year the dollar will cost 405,8 tenge.

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The ruble will grow

Four consecutive months the median forecast for the Russian currency has not changed. Experts called it the cost of a year at the level of 6.1 m. But this time expectations had deteriorated. Global changes of the course, the respondents do not expect, however, the national currency, in their view, will weaken against the Russian to 6.2 tenge. The median forecast of 6.1, which is also higher than previously.

Do not expect the respondents and the major fluctuations of the dollar in Russia. In their opinion, in the next month he will be at the level of 64.07 rubles. October, the currency pair ended at around 64,13 rubles per dollar.

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Oil: the market is without change

Predictions about the stability in the foreign exchange markets has affected commodity. At the time of the November survey the price of Brent crude oil fluctuated in the range of $61,3-63,3 per barrel. At this level it will remain in the next month. The average expectation was at the level of $62,13 per barrel, and the median was $62.

“Experts have revised their medium-term forecasts for oil prices and the expected decline in the next 12 months to $60. Recall that in October the price of oil a year is expected to reach $61,9 per barrel,” — noted in the AFC.

                                    Experts forecast the cost of oil in dollarsdadfdc07c3ab98f1d3bd4b656568d963 e1573712600428 - What will happen to the exchange rate of tenge, inflation and price of oil: forecasts of experts

Inflation: the trend to positive

For the first time in 7 months of experts ‘ forecasts for annual inflation did not exceed 6%. According to the results of a November poll average forecast was developed at this level, having decreased over the month by 0.1%. This is still above current values (to 5.5% by the end of October), but was part of a targeted corridor of the national Bank (4-6%%). While the median forecast for a second month in a row is kept at 5.8%, not far from current values.

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Base rate: no consensus

Average forecast: the base rate in 12 months will amount to 9.5% versus a 9.25% today. However, if you rely on the median value, nothing will change – it is 9.25%. However, 36.4% of respondents believe that the national Bank will lower rates, and 45.5 percent expect increases.

Moreover, regarding the actions of the regulator at the next meeting at the rate of 9 Dec consensus among experts no.

“More than half of professional financial market participants (59.1 per cent) who participated in the survey AFK, I assume that the OST of the regulator at the next meeting will also remain unchanged. At the same time 36.4% expect a rate hike, and 4.5% predict a decrease,” — noted in the AFC.

                                Weather experts at the base rate, in percente209f3e1dc3e803a2e997ab50d629cec e1573713744237 - What will happen to the exchange rate of tenge, inflation and price of oil: forecasts of experts

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