According to the economist,
one gets the impression that the national Bank uses the old methods, not taking into account the changed external conditions
— If in the 2015-16 increase in the base rate is justified, now it can lead the economy to recession.
According to experts, the spread of coronavirus leads to the fact that the market continues to go down, losing over the last month 30% — all scored in just over three years.
— Renewal of the agreement OPEC and limit production volumes have fallen off the oil market by 30% and the fall continues.
The results of the last trading disappointing: the oil has already breached the psychological barrier of $25 per barrel. In these circumstances, as a response to the crisis, Central banks around the world cut rates to stimulate the economy.
So, the fed resets the bid and announced a new large-scale quantitative easing.
According to a survey by Bloomberg policy rates of Central banks, distinguished by our national Bank. March 10, 2020 it only raised the rate, and from 9.25% to 12% and kept it at that level on 16 March 2020.
— If the decision on 10 March was adopted without delay, on March 16, you can see that the failure of oil prices is not accidental and not simultaneously. However, in an attempt to curb inflation, the national Bank decided to go against the market and keep a high rate.
Now it is obvious that in conditions of turbulence in international markets and the devaluation of the national currency inflation within a corridor of 4-6% fails to hold.
But at the same time
National Bank trying to keep the tenge deposits sacrifices to stimulate the economy and worsens credit conditions,
increasing the cost of tenge borrowing for banks in the National Bank to 13.5%. Accordingly, loans to businesses will be even more expensive.