on Wednesday night, Iran launched dozens of rockets at two us military bases in Iraq. This was the killing of a senior Iranian General Qasem Soleimani, the us military drone last week.
The murder of Soleimani, one of the most important figures in the country, was extraordinary provocative step, and Iran reported that the reaction followed.
And she followed in the form of missile attacks on us bases, but what’s next?
Nobody knows, especially if we take into account the volatility of the current American President
Tweeted trump announced that he will speak in detail about the situation this morning, but added that “all is well”.
Restraint administration trump gives hope that the escalation in the current conflict between the US and Iran continue not receive.
To understand the meaning of the actions of the Iran correspondent for VOX Jen Kirby met with Ilan Goldenberg, who is an expert on the Middle East and relations with Iran.
— On the phone, you said that now more optimistic than a few hours ago. Why?
— Because the White house has announced that tonight will not be the President’s speech. If in the evening the President went on television, it would be done by one and only one reason: to declare an attack on Iran, the United States and the serious U.S. retaliation.
The fact that he is not, tells me two things. First, the administration thinks about the next steps and it’s good that she didn’t react immediately.
Secondly, we don’t know exactly about the level of damage at bases in Iraq, if he’s serious, trump would be addressed immediately. So it seems to me that the attack the attack has devastating consequences.
— That is, no news is good news?
— Of course, the absence of the presidential address is the good news.
— Since the death of Soleimani, the world watched and waited for the retaliation of Iran. What do you think Iran’s response?
First, it is important to note that we do not know whether it was the answer because we don’t know the results of the attack. About the extent of the damage is still not reported. Therefore, it is not necessary that the whole of the Iranian response to the death of Soleimani. It may just be the first reaction.
Personally, I think Iran had to do something fast. Something symbolic and public, given the publicity of the murder Soleimani. But Iran didn’t want to start a full-scale war. Attack Iran boldly, seriously and it’s important. But it didn’t kill many Americans.
In Iran on state TV say were killed 30 Americans, and that Iranian planes flying over Iraqi territory. They say a lot of crazy things, but it is intended for an internal audience.
Thus, the reality is that Iran, at least at this point, said relatively proportionally. This is my opinion.
But, again in my opinion, this is not the only answer. I think Iran will take many steps and perhaps not so publicly. I think we need to be afraid of cyber attacks, terrorist acts, attacks on American embassies and murder American officials. I believe that we may face in the coming years.
— You mentioned the Iranian audience. And what role is Iran playing the relationship between the state and the people?
— A huge. On the one hand there’s the nationalist reaction to the killing of Soleimani. On the other hand, he was a popular man who defended his homeland from the Islamic state. And he was unpopular in some parts of the Arab world, especially because of its actions in Syria.
But, as I said, this is a moment of national unity. And if you are the head of an authoritarian state, in such situations you are trying to enlist the support of the people. And this is important to show people that you are a brave and strong leader. In many ways, therefore, Iran was forced to do something.
— So you think that the objects of attack were chosen to show strength, but to avoid the American deaths, not to aggravate the situation?
— Launch missiles with low accuracy at the base in the middle of a vast desert, this is an extremely low chance to kill someone. But one can not say that Iran has deliberately tried to avoid casualties.
What about Iraq in this situation?
Iraq is a disaster. I was there a month ago, and I have a feeling that they just want to regain their country. They are tired of the Iranians and the Americans. They don’t want Iraq to become a battleground between Iran and the United States. But, unfortunately, it seems that the situation is moving in that direction.
— Really like that. What are the scenarios?
— There are two main factors that should be taken into account. From the USA — the assistant to the President for national security gathered at the White house, consulted and sold without a single message. The result — some questions. They are going to explore more options? Will we see the American response in the next couple of days? Or we we will observe silence? And that this will silence mean? The rejection of the escalation or the preparation of a massive strike?
From the Iranian side, the main question — answers Iran ended or will a new wave of attacks tomorrow? I really hope that ended.
But again we still need to wait for other threats, including cyber attacks and murders. I think that the Iranian side will start to do it, but we don’t know exactly when. Maybe in coming weeks or months, and maybe years. It is even possible that will happen after presidential term, trump.
— Go to the vital issue, we are now at war with Iran? At least we are now closer to war than immediately after the death of Soleimani?
It all depends on the next steps of the American government and Iran. Currently, we are not at war. But, it is a very dangerous situation and escalation is possible. The secret war goes, but to begin a full-scale war, Trump needs the approval of Congress.
Therefore, we are not at war. We closer? Maybe, but not sure. It is possible that we even further if that was the only act of retaliation, Iran. But, this attack could be the beginning of a campaign of retaliation, that is another matter.