Kassym-Zhomart Tokayev for the post of the President only a few months, and have already made dozens of appointments. Moreover, some several times. Some of the decisions raise questions, but overall the last portrait reports filled with new colors. How to understand the latest changes, the MediaPortal 365info said political analyst Daniyar Ashimbayev.
New life for old patterns
— Daniyar, you have noticed that the administration of the new President consists almost entirely of representatives of the team Leader…
— The presidential administration in Kazakhstan “everything.” As the brain it is difficult to see, but a place where all the nerves completely. At the moment the problem of modern Kazakhstan the device is that it hardly generates new ideas.
Even the last election, we have seen, it would seem, already the new President were held according to the old patterns. In terms of the economy we see that the new President himself is trying to find approaches. Because everyone knows what is the situation. You need to change something in politics and in the economy.
So the President actively launched a program of netdialog as part of his Council and in bilateral meetings. It looks like an attempt by the President to find from the solutions out of the current situation. Crisis call her is difficult.
But we see that neither the camera nor the economy, nor the government in General are not working as they should. At least as it could, there is no place for ideals
The brain is really there, as for the fists, there is some innuendo in the question of subordination of law enforcement agencies. Therefore, this issue is still hanging in the air.
On the legal status of the President’s administration is a state body directly subordinate and accountable to the President. Technically its leaders were part of the units, whose candidacy is discussed by the security Council. Thus in jokescom the decree, made a lot of noise, the head of the administration and control of the President in this capacity is not mentioned. They are outside the scope. This is a personal tukaevski economy.
He came to power not so long ago — in March 2019, and his administration has changed three head — Bakytzhan Sagintayev, Krymbek Kusherbayev and Yerlan Koshanov. And that’s not counting asset Issekeshev, which remained from the team of Nazarbayev, and which obviously was agreed to further work in this incarnation, but a week was dismissed.
The President is still looking for a place the authority and the team picks. Because initially it’s his team, consisted mostly of immigrants from foreign policy direction. It was the staff of the foreign Ministry and administration of the Senate, who worked with Mr. Tokayev as its head of depodesta and the speaker.
Ready Secretary of state, chief of staff, Prime Minister and so forth he’s in the cage was not
The task was to form the inner circle that would provide controllability and helped the new President to quickly enter into the swing of things.
Thus we see that some tactical issues sometimes dominate strategy. But her question still was not solved. The change of three heads of the administration — evidence.
Originally directed the office of Akorda Bakytzhan Sagintayev. The man who just recently resigned as Prime Minister and soon was appointed Secretary of state.
Complex man who survived a wave of criticism on economic policy, held in past years
His candidacy for the post of head of the administration was good because Sagintayev heavyweight, able to be at the highest positions of leadership. The Minister and the Governor and Deputy Prime Minister, and the Prime Minister of baggage good.
— This appointment Tokayev put at the head of its administration a man who, without entering into a new team, his experience and authority raised weight management.
First, it was already the nominee Tokayev, but all the same agreed, most likely, with the first President. Thus, at the head of the administration stood strong figure, to strengthen and make the administration more powerful governments and administrations.
Then, when the opportunity arose to put his own man at the head of Almaty, on the sidelines, there was talk that the fight for the replacement Bauyrzhan Baibek was a few months hard enough, he threw Sagintayev.
— Changes in Almaty can not help but surprise, the same speed limit…
— Almaty is one of the key regions. In fact, the main. Here and money, and brains, and very unhappy people. What’s missing from the capital, a critical public opinion. In the capital, the General public does not have the habit to ask questions from the floor. And this is a bad influence on the state apparatus of capital in General. You can offer the stupid agenda, and no one will stutter.
In Almaty the cost of power to blurt out nonsense about the mural with the Joker, the city immediately began the “rebellion”
Administration said it did not understand. It would be better said nothing at all… the City sets the critical tone for the entire Republic. And the party and movement here, and a set of public figures and speakers in Almaty, more than in any other region.
The buyback Almaty, too, did not come immediately. At some point he learned to interact with public opinion. Though at times he was basically ignored. The question of Kok-Zhailau as an example. But in Almaty at least teach the government to respond to public opinion, no matter how stubborn it may be.
“Balavoine” and ambitions
Is the only city where a viable public Council. Where even a small rally causes noise, is comparable to the national protest.
According to rumors, Tokayev originally wanted to send the mayor of Almaty, Minister of energy Kanat Bozumbayev. He is considered the President more important to you. But he for some reason did not pass. After some time a compromise figure was Sagintayev. It is clear that he was automatically doomed to certain collision with Baibek.
To take control of the city, under control need to take the tenders and schemes, where for some time were people Baibek
The energy with which Baibek altered the city, any action by the new Governor met the displeasure of the former authorities. Therefore, any mayor is doomed to rewrite the legacy of his predecessor. For the city Bauyrzhan Baibek has done a lot of good, but controversies too.
Very jealously related to the reputation of a modernizer Almaty, Baibek any movement Sagintayev took a negative
Especially with him in “Nur Otan” took almost the whole team. All secretaries of the party apparatus are former senior officials of the city.
All the major officials in the first place trying to take care of the personal image propaganda and counter-propaganda. A large herd of bloggers out in the field to kill each other.
Sagintayev experienced player and he is not prone to sharp movements. But to some extent he is vulnerable. Therefore, the outcome of the fight is clear — Sagintayev by the city of a resource is more likely to stretch in this fight, and the Buyback is a party. It was commanded to revive a few months ago and are still waiting.
Listens and hears
— Understands and first President – no wonder he requested a follow-up to its previous programmes and messages Nurlan Nigmatulin, and the writing of the new party program – Askar Mamin.
In these circumstances, the visit Tokayev in Almaty looked like the beginning of some movements. The President’s trip to Almaty for the devastating meeting cemented this trend.
Hard propescia certain moments, Kassym-Zhomart Kemelevich gave a scolding and a new head — nothing to lose
Reprimand to the first Deputy Governor, just appointed, shows that Tokayev wants to see in Sagintaeva dynamics. Requires the President to his appointees worked brighter and better than they do now.
— There was feedback from people who had all tried not to listen and not hear?
— Yes, we got used to the fact that the government usually ignores the public and expert opinion. And even when some government officials acted “under pressure from below”, it was considered a sign of weakness or populism.
It seemed that the power of a government that she leads people wherever considered necessary, regardless of any requirements of the press, petitions, open letters. And in my opinion, the model of enlightened authoritarianism is very adequate to our Eurasian realities.
Importantly – you need a healthy balance between education and authoritarianism
And the fact is that the device ceases to be so with advice and criticism that wanders where he did not know. In the economy, in politics and in the social sphere.
Where is the economy there and all
— In Economics, we know where Wikipedia recently made myself clear about the economy of Kazakhstan.
— Wikipedia such prikolchiki arise periodically. Everyone understands that we in many situations there is a word recently used on Wikipedia in the economy. The question is — how this situation out?
Tokayev causes the apparatus to respond to the needs of the public. But the concept of “the needs of the public” is very loose
Now, in the conditions of sharp social stratification, when 1.5 million people received ASP, that is was deemed poor, it is understood that the requests of the population is primarily social. Attempts to steer by the old rules — for example, to withdraw this very TSA-issued violations is even worse. Because not punishing those who illegally issued. As a result, social policy has acquired an even greater poignancy.
Action on write-off of loans and the freezing of the loans to the poor seems to be good. To remove the burden of debt. But we understand that we are talking about people who in principle are unable to provide a more or less acceptable living conditions. Here, too, the right options.
Long-running reform of mandatory social health insurance, which we have implemented. And we all remember how
I believe that this reform is being introduced by some cavalry assaults. At the same time, almost all experts say that nothing is ready. And this situation will also have to steer, this is because it is a crisis already took effect.
People, money and potential
— We have actually people are not so much poor, how many hid their real income. According to experts, the amount of gray income has reached 10 trillion tenge per year. Why and offered translations to impose taxes.
Shadow incomes of the population, Yes. A very simple example — in South Kazakhstan region, always considered an outsider on the size of the average wage, is the champion of the Republic on the presence of young oligarchs.
But it is in the ground to estimate the income of the population as much too high, I would not. Because these trillions that have become part of the black market, as in the legal economy, the beneficiaries, not so much. The same thing, when they say that the budget has no money.
If you simply look at the budgets of quasivector as tens of billions are allocated between the various businesses, see the money in the country
And they have become the official feeder, which gives no profit. The situation with the LRT is a good example.
The country has potential. There are people, and money, but it does not work as a system. Tokayev has set a goal to subdue the machine and direct its energy at least to some good cause. We see that he is doing everything within reason, gently combine the compromise with a certain sabotage, but surely is the goal.
The machine is not very positive about the arrival of a new President. Someone he was planning to take that place, someone is trying to show the second President that he is not home in the country. But it is clear that Akorda gradually increases the pressure in all directions.
People want punishment
— The ruling party that could help, still looking for ways of samorealizatsii. Quasivector immediately after the President’s message instead to report on the adoption of measures to increase transparency, began to explain that they are fine. But it is clear that the same “Samruk-time”, “KazMunaiGas” and “Kazakhstan Temir Zholy”, if you dig, you can find a lot of things about the user prefers to remain silent.
The power structure is still not ready to restructure their operations. Recently underwent a reorganization, but some of the security forces are hesitant to take responsibility
We see confusion around the case the Deputy Governor of Almaty region Bagdat Manzorov, around the case of LRT, the works of the Zhomart yertav. Further redistribution of spheres of influence will inevitably throw someone overboard.
Have Tokayev has the support of public opinion, which wants not so much to reform, how much punishment those responsible for the situation in which the country finds itself. We understand that this question ostropoliticheskie. Enough layoffs, and perhaps arrest a dozen people who now control a significant part of the economy and/or inhibit development potential.
To the leaders of the economy has considered the opinion Tokayev, he needs to take control of all economic institutions and power structures — prosecutors, antikorruptsionera and CSS
This question is slippery, you can’t provoke a too rapid redistribution of spheres of influence. While some redistribution is inevitable. People sooner or later realize that it is necessary to leave. But think our economic leaders more stomach to expect from them an adequate response is not necessary.
Areas where strengthened Tokayev, a lot. He tries to find a way to provide some continuity, because people do not want any sudden movements. We have achievements, which is difficult to dispute.
Kusherbayev and his authority
— For young people who have not seen the other life, it seems that now everything is as it always has been. But we remember that in Kazakhstan there were threats and inter-ethnic and inter-ethnic clashes. Nursultan Nazarbayev has ensured stability in the country. What I was really missing during those years, our neighbors. And he did it without imposing the state of emergency and mass executions.
At some point, the struggle for stability has lost its meaning, it must be taken. Now the potential of the economy and society need to get out and get to work for the common good
It all depends on the same dozen beneficiaries. But even their change raises thorny question: who to change? Need competent, sane and loyal staff.
A strong step was the appointment of Krymbek Kusherbayev as the head of administration. Kusherbayev is one of the most experienced heavyweights. With his arrival expected that the administration will sharply revive. But in that moment, the first President passed the first stage of care and returned to active work. The question arose that excessive activity of the administration would put at risk the fragile peace achieved.
And because there was the opportunity to release Marat Tazhin from the office of the Secretary, to the post of head of administration was transferred Kusherbayev
Step perceived by many negatively, as showing the weakness of the first President — say, for Kusherbayev this fall. But you have to understand that Kusherbayev lives and works in other categories. If he is urgently requiring a decision of the question, he easily comes out of the narrow limit of authority and gets results. Everyone remembers how as a Deputy Prime Minister, it was easily eclipsed by Prime Minister Serik Akhmetov.
— Autocracy ideology was not for many years. The various departments of the Executive power fought among themselves for priority. Task Kusherbayev is to gradually and gently break off the excess horns and to get everyone to work together as a team. And with this task it will be to cope. His work as Secretary of state for Moscow was more important than his job in the administration.
And here arose the third head of the authority Yerlan Koshanov, akim of Karaganda region, who for many years worked as the head of the government apparatus in several premieres. He is considered a person of Karim Massimov.
If you believe the tales hardware, Koshanov initially considered the place Sagintayev on the post of Governor after the departure of asset Issekeshev
Koshanov, though not a political heavyweight, but very experienced apparatchik. We must understand that the office of the Prime Minister is the organ, the status of which is periodically varied. But this is one of the oldest agencies of the Executive branch. In fact, the same administration of the President and grew from the same government. Even more than from the Central Committee.
This on a relatively conservative and having a huge shadow effect, as it is working on the summary and the positions of various ministries, and they are sometimes contradictory, into a single solution.
In the government people traditionally worked not so, as everywhere — came the month worked and went — and years and even decades
Koshanov and for many years led the office of the Prime Minister — the man who knows the necessity of a clear and coordinated work. Where you need to break departmental, sectoral and regional interests, building them from a single line. Chiefs of the Chancellery of the Prime Minister is traditionally a special publicity is not sought. So I think Koshanov at the head of the administration even if not as many people Tokayev, how much Massimov, the administration makes a strong structure.
Curator of economy
— Have you noticed that with the advent of Koshanov about the administration in General, there is no news?
— His only public appearance in recent months — speaking at the forum of imams. In the movie “ocean’s Eleven” was such a moment: one of them comes to the casino as a shady businessman arms market. The dialogue between the owner and the administrator: “I never heard” – “is this Not the best reputation?”.
In addition, Koshanov immediately changed one of the deputies. To the important post of Deputy for the state and legal work, was appointed his subordinate in the government apparatus Yerzhan an. The unit is one of the key. It controls the legislative, law enforcement and judicial systems. In this block there is a Department of defense and law and order created as a personal tukaevskogo structure of the device due to the fact that all the main traditional divisions of “left” in the apparatus of the security Council.
What Casanova given the opportunity to put his Deputy in this strategic block, speaks of its credibility and weight
In the history of Kazakhstan the head of state is not very allowed the leaders of the administration to change the deputies at their discretion.
The rest of the deputies of the presidential administration in the most part remained in their positions. However, the structure of the AP took place some changes. We remember that zamruki and assistants to the President are equal to each other. Traditionally been assistants for foreign policy and security Council. On the economy or the assistant or Deputy head. Translation of Timur Suleymenov, the curator of the economy, from the assistants to the Deputy head of the administration — a technical question.
Suleymenov came to the cage Sagintayev. Was formerly the Minister of economy and was considered Shintoism promoted. It left the current structure of the AP, because the alternative was not special.
Mursalin and his career
— If you were previously atabaevskaya and gelimbatovskaya nominees, now command-economic schools for the training of government economists in principle, no. And Suleimenov as a former economy Minister and member of the Board of EEC, now Tokayev arranged.
In addition, the President is sounding out the approaches to the modernization of economic policy. Most likely, personally
And the government with the administration trying to think of something, but the President is likely still more. The question is that the system was too structured in the interests of the corporate sector. And quickly rebuild it. Although it is clear that it is necessary. So I think the question of the change of the curator economy from the President’s left for later.
Deputy head of the administration of Mursaleen Malik was appointed in March 2019. It was one of the last personnel decision of Nursultan Nazarbayev. An experienced politician and administrator, he had been in the diplomatic service, which automatically leads him to the circle Tokayev, who appreciate the diplomatic staff. In the Luggage Mursalina — experience the first Deputy akim of SKO, otvetchika of the Agency for religious Affairs, Deputy Manager of the President and the mayor of Akmola region. But almost none of the curator of the administrations prior to that had experience as a Governor of the region.
Mursalin — the figure that knows all the political kitchen. Not inclined to publicity
Still in administration there are certain rules by which the less visible its managers, the better. He oversees the organizational and regional work, which actually makes him the assistant to the President on matters of building the vertical of power. This is a complex process. Murzalin as a diplomat, the technocrat and the politician is more than adequate for this role.
The Office Ananova
— About the office of the President, headed by Nurlan Onzhanov, we have already discussed in previous publications. This presidential mail, and a schedule of meetings, and distribution of awards, and the organization of the entire administration, and issues of state secrets. It was all run by Mahmoud kassymbekova, who led the unit for nearly two decades.
Onzhanov — team Tokayev. Worked with him at the foreign Ministry for many years. The diplomat, who has a solid hardware experience, since twice held the post of assistant to the President on foreign policy
To weight kassymbekova is far from it, but if it is included in the plans Tokayev. He builds the administration more or less equidistant. Not to say that he has some favorites. It’s important for him — a competent organization of work. Plus compel the administration to work the way you need it. And to be alert and monitor the situation.
On the monitoring of abandoned new assistant to the President, Aida Balayeva. She worked in the administrations of southern and Northern capitals, was a good school at the same Tasmagambetov several years was in charge of the AP’s internal politics. And, becoming assistant to the President, he stepped up the career ladder. And the work that she does, the President assigns a very important role.
Dialogue with society
— Previously, there was no Department on work with citizens, under it specially created?
— There was such a Department back in the early 90s. Then it slavilsya General division and lost as an independent unit. Now this body is not so much concerned with working with citizens, as with the reception of citizens and set public opinion. Then direct the report to the President.
Tokayev in this regard has crafted a potentially very effective mechanism. Any decision he might justify by reference to public opinion
And it gives him good leverage. Balaeva — man is publicly known, represented in social networks.
Technically, it is seen that Tokayev is not based on the team, but it has crafted a system of government so that it meets its requirements. It doesn’t have to be close to relatives or longstanding companions. But it was people loyal to him, at least officially. Plus the people who would perform the tasks, which the President considers to be priorities.
The current administration — not tukaevskaya administration. But it is functional, the administration of President Tokayev. Of course, there are people that can be replaced.
Not very noticeable fact: previously the President’s representative in Parliament, were appointed by order of the President. That is equivalent to a head of Department. Now appointed by presidential decree
The status of this post is actually elevated. Work with the Parliament to Tokaev in the moment is important because he needs to go new laws. Since both of the speaker people is quite complex, powerful, Tokayev, and set to work with the Parliament as an experienced diplomat, Beibut Isabayev. He worked with him and the foreign Ministry, and the government. He also has senior experience working in the presidential administration.
Where to put the Kaletayev?
— On the basis of a set of people and objectives, Kassym-Zhomart Kemelevich time in vain does not lose.
Recently Tokayev was removed from the administration Darkhan Kaletayev, what does that mean?
— Darkhan Kaletayev was a Deputy on ideology. Needs no introduction — former first Deputy head of “Nur Otan” and the Ministry of social development, head of the office of the Prime Minister. Is an energetic, young and with a huge experience behind them.
In General, post samruka ideology is one of the key Kazakhstan’s system of government and even expire from the post of Secretary of the Communist party ideology
Then there was profile Vice-the Prime Minister. Then for a long time curating ideology actually was not, and ideology worked Altynbek Sarsenbayev as a Minister.
First Deputy head of the administration is ideology to Kaletayev was only Marat Tazhin. Maulen Ashimbayev and Baglan Mailybaev was just a Deputy. After leaving the tagine in as Secretary of state this spring as the first samrala took Darkhan Kaletayev.
In the spring of 2019 in the formation of the government of Askar Mamin his Ministry “ate” Dauren Abayev and Kaletayev briefly led the government apparatus. Then headed ideological unit of administration in the rank of first samruka. The status of this post, as we have seen, was raised.
Powers is huge, but you need to remember that there is an internal struggle
Some questions wants to make Secretary of state, some zamruki, and the money, what is important in ideological work are the core ministries of culture and information, which Ministers to share are not always ready. The question here is, who reports to who. A rigid vertical was not even under the Treaty. Were always figures who had access to the President and to the chief “ideologist” listened on the situation.
Tokayev took the decision to replace Kaletayev, which, according to rumors, is now awaiting diplomatic work. In its place came Maulen Ashimbayev.
The ideology and strategy
He was the chief ideologue in the period from 2006 to 2011. After opals were Majilis Deputy, was the head of “Nur Otan”, headed the election headquarters Tokayev.
And when he was replaced by Back, and for some time was without a job. That was a surprise for the person who led the election headquarters of the new President
Then Tokaev appointed him as his assistant, despite the confusion and ideological issues are in fact already engaged a Secretary, first Samruk, and even political reforms engaged Yerlan Karin as Advisor to the President and Secretary NSOD.
Ashimbaeva given charge of the team of speechwriters. This group, formed in July, and was not appointed Manager. Therefore, the appointment of Ashimbayeva assistant to the President, oversees this unit, looks like a forced, in gratitude for the work done during the presidential campaign.
The last time the speaker turned presidential speaker, began to give comments. And I think that when it became necessary to dismiss Kaletayev,
Tokayev made the decision to combine business with pleasure. Here and took the place of the person who previously worked in this position and who is loyal to the President
The Maulen Ashimbayev your M. O. is he more of a scientist to some extent than a politician. Taking the hard decisions and building the vertical of power is not his style. I see its purpose so that it was necessary to calm the situation — to take the edge off, which started to soar in recent years.
Bozumbayev and its powers
— How was the appointment of Kanat Bozumbayev? Predictable, since we already talked about the fact that Bozumbayev team Tokaev?
— Not entirely predictable. Bozumbayev was considered a person close Tokaev. Expected his appointment by the mayor or the head of “Samruk-Kazyna”.
Now there are trials around three of his former deputies in the Ministry of energy. How adequate charges brought to them, and whether they are confirmed in court, hard to say. Too strong attention of the security forces in recent times was focused on the work of the Ministry.
And we see that those directions for which the judge two of the three Deputy Ministers, was in 2019, withdrawn from the Ministry of energy the Ministry of ecology and Geology.
To say that Bozumbayev was removed into the shade, difficult. And his press Secretary even said that the departure of the Minister associated with condition
But we know that “health” is more diplomatic wording. I think the situation is escalated conflict field around the energy. It’s not just the Ministry, and takes part in forming the rules of the game at the biggest and most important market of Kazakhstan — oil, gas and electricity.
To sit out the storm
— Immediately after the transit authority was changed otvetchika energy, “left” Kanatbek Safinov. And Bozumbayev after his departure was urgently summoned to report to the security Council. It looked that the actions Bozumbayev cause discontent among many players.
Now the President has decided to alleviate this issue, remove Bozumbayev with conflicts, and the Minister to make Nurlan Nogayev,
which in this area had long worked, so that the oil and gas sector fairly well-known person. And he is not prone to sharp movements. Left Bozumbayev to the post of assistant to the President, but his powers were not defined. When will subside the sharpness around his actions, his powers would grow.
Note that the number of assistants have Tokayev growing. If you normally had two assistant for foreign policy and security Council Secretary, and plus or minus the aide on the economy, now to Nurtleuov and Kasymov added Balayeva and Bozumbayev. According to human resources and organizational maneuvers Tokayev, it creates a field in which a new vertical of power, closes on him personally.